Beware Investing in The Emerging Markets

Last update on: Jun 05 2020

This article makes the worst case scenario for investing in emerging markets now. While some argue that the worst is behind us and there are some attractive values, this article says there is likely to be more trouble to come. It makes the case many have made about the potential for hard landing in China.

I have followed this global binge of dollar borrowing with the realization that as the Federal Reserve begins its quantitative tightening cycle, we were going to get precisely this dollar short squeeze, so I was a bit perplexed when the dollar registered its highest exchange rate on the first trading day in 2017 and then pretty much went down all year. In hindsight, it was the unwinding of the eurozone disintegration trades in many local currency and bond markets that caused the fall in the dollar, not the interest rate differentials, which were improving against most members of the U.S. Dollar Index.

 

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