The world’s largest and most successful hedge fund says the economy should do well in 2018, but it’s worried about 2019. Tighter monetary policy should cause growth to slow, and if the Fed overdoes it could trigger a recession. But markets react before the economy, so the fund is bearish on almost all financial assets. Details are here.
Extrapolating from current conditions, the hedge fund — which currently manages about $150 billion, according to its website — says the yield curve for Treasury bonds should remain flat, with oil hitting $62 and the dollar slumping 3.5% compared to other major currencies.