Financial Advice for Retirement, Social Security, IRAs and Estate Planning

Notes on the Fed’s Changing Policy

June 28, 2017

Ben Hunt of Salient Advisors says the Fed indicated a major change in the statements after its latest meeting. Most investors either don’t understand the change or don’t think it really matter. But Hunt says the Fed no longer will be considering factors such as the stock market when considering its policy moves. Its focus is elsewhere, and if the stock market declines, that’s too bad.

Two things and two things only have changed in the real world since last fall. First, Donald Trump — a man every Fed Governor dislikes and mistrusts — is in the White House. Second, the job market has heated up to the point where it is — Yellen’s words — close to being unstable, and is — Yellen’s words — inevitably going to heat up still further.

What has happened (and apologies for the ten dollar words) is that the Fed’s reaction function has flipped 180 degrees since the Trump election. Today the Fed is looking for excuses to tighten monetary policy, not excuses to weaken. So long as the unemployment rate is on the cusp of “instability”, that’s the only thing that really matters to the Fed (for reasons discussed below). Every other data point, including a market sell-off or a flat yield curve or a bad CPI number — data points that used to be front and center in Fed thinking — is now in the backseat.

 

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