Over a year ago the U.K.’s voters favored leaving the European Union. Since then, a lot has transpired. How does that affect Britain’s efforts to leave the EU? In this article, Bloomberg surveys some prominent analysts for their current views on what is likely to happen over the next two years. The conclusion you should draw is that there still is a wide range of possible outcomes, so it wouldn’t be wise to bet on any particular outcome at this point.
One year on and Bloomberg is willing to give the experts another chance. We asked 13 “Brexit watchers” to tell us what they think Britain’s divorce will look like when it occurs on March 29, 2019.
The responses varied. Henry Newman of Open Europe and Global Counsel’s Gregor Irwin see the grounds for a deal, likely with a transitional period to smooth the way. Still, Clifford Chance’s Phillip Souta estimates a 30 percent chance of no deal and Daniela Schwarzer of the German Council On Foreign Relations reckons the probability is 50 percent. Carsten Nickel at Teneo Intelligence even imagines a world in which a Prime Minister Boris Johnson keeps Britain inside the bloc.