Financial Advice for Retirement, Social Security, IRAs and Estate Planning

Don’t Fear The Yield Curve

Last update on: Jun 19 2020

A few months back I told my subscribers in one of my weekly Bob’s Journal entries that people were too worked up about the flattening yield curve. There’s a long delay between the inverting of the yield curve and a recession, plus there are several factors artificially influencing the yield curve that weren’t in place when studies were done showing the relationship between an inverted yield curve and recessions.

The latest Fed minutes reveal that at its June meeting Fed governors were given a presentation containing similar thoughts. The Fed was presented an alternative recession early warning indicator that had been described earlier in this paper.

 

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