Retirement Articles

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Europe Could Return to the Headlines Soon

October 13, 2016

October 13, 2016 Europe Could Return to the Headlines Soon With the exception of the Brexit vote, investors haven’t worried much about Europe for a couple of years. After the European financial crisis didn’t bring the world economy to its knees, Europe stabilized and then improved a bit. Quantitative easing from the European Central Bank […]

Revisiting the 4% Rule

October 7, 2016

I’ve been a long-term critic of 4% as the “safe spending rate” or the 4% rule. The basic premise of the 4% rule is that to ensure your nest egg lasts through retirement, you should withdraw no more than 4% the first year and increase it by the inflation rate each year after that. This […]

The Third Quarter Surprises Analysts — Again

October 6, 2016

The third quarter was another one full of surprises for those trying to anticipate the markets. Let’s take a look at what the major asset classes did during the quarter. Despite a lot of negative headlines and pessimistic analysts, stocks had another good quarter across the globe. The S&P 500 rose 3.78% for the quarter, […]

Anatomy of Penny Stocks

October 3, 2016

The penny stock world often attracts investors looking for the big score. They’ve heard stories of investors buying Xerox or IBM when they first went public and were at very low prices. A few decades later early investors were multi-millionaires. But the penny stock world also is full of risky companies and some outright scams. […]


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An Update on the Effects of Brexit

September 29, 2016

Do you remember Brexit? That was when a majority of those casting votes in the United Kingdom were in favor of leaving the European Union. The initial forecasts were that the vote would be both a short-term and a long-term disaster for the United Kingdom and Europe. Global markets for risk assets (stocks, commodities, real […]

Analyzing the TED Spread

September 28, 2016

The TED Spread is a simple quantitative tool that some analysts use to gauge the level of risk in the markets. When the spread gets too wide, they say, it’s time to sell some assets. I bring this up because the TED Spread’s been rising lately. Here’s a good analysis of the TED Spread. Like […]

Anticipating Future Stock Market Returns

September 28, 2016

Meb Faber summarizes a talk he recently gave about valuations and what they say about likely future returns. He doesn’t make forecasts. He looks at the probabilities of different scenarios and what the returns are likely to be in each of those scenarios. The outcomes aren’t very positive for investment positions taken today. Historical returns […]

Steve Eisman, A Big Short, Gives His Current Views on the Economy and the Stock Market

September 23, 2016

Steve Eisman is one of the people given credit for seeing the mortgage/housing crisis coming and benefiting from the collapse. He’s been quiet the last few years. But this post describes his latest speech, in which he describes what he thinks is likely to be a good short position and a possible source of a […]

November 2020:

Congress Comes for your Retirement Money

A devastating new law has just been enacted, with serious consequences for anyone holding an IRA, pension, or 401(k). Fortunately, there are still steps you can take to sidestep Congress, starting with this ONE SIMPLE MOVE.

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