Bob's Journal
Found 463 Articles.
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Knowing What Your Index Fund Invests in
Investors need to be aware of changes in the major stock indexes. Index fund investors, of course, need to know how the indexes are composed so they’ll know what’s in their portfolios and the risks they are taking. Investors in non-index, or active, funds should know what’s in the indexes, because mutual funds usually are […]
Have we Reached Peak Earnings for This Cycle?
Most companies now have reported their first-quarter earnings, and the overall results are outstanding. Almost 70% of companies exceeded the earnings estimates for the quarter, and more than 72% exceeded revenue estimates. The percentage of companies exceeding earnings estimates was the highest since 2006 and among the highest since 1999. A large percentage of companies […]
Dollar Surge Surprises Analysts
The dollar’s been soaring lately and surprising many analysts. After the latest upward surge, the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) still is down 4.50% over the last 12 months and 0.85% annualized for the last three years. But it’s up 4.86% for the last three months, 3.39% for the last four weeks and […]
Investors Sell off Stocks of Companies with Good Results
Investors are learning that stock prices don’t always follow earnings. Over the long-term, corporate earnings overall tend to grow at about the same rate as gross domestic product (GDP), and stock prices tend to rise at the same rate as earnings. But that’s over the long term, since there can be a lot of divergence […]
Do Weak Retail Sales Indicate a Problem with the Economy?
Do weak retail sales indicate a problem with the economy? They’re certainly a problem for retailers. Weak overall sales, plus competition from online retailers, are among trends causing a large number of retailers to file for bankruptcy. But does the recent weakness in retail sales foreshadow a problem with economic growth? The latest retail sales […]
Spotting Changes in the Global Economy
One of the first places to spot changes in the global economy is in the economic surprises index. The best-known economic surprises index is prepared by Citigroup. The index doesn’t track whether economic data is positive or negative, improving or declining. Instead, it tracks whether the data is better or worse than the expectations of […]
Markets Continue Negative Trend
The investment markets in March continued the negative trends of February. The biggest trend, of course, is negative returns for the major stock indexes. The S&P 500 slid 2.74% in March, fell 7.81% from its Jan. 26 peak to wipe out January’s strong gains and now has a year-to-date loss of 1.00%. The Dow Jones […]
The Post-Crisis Inflation Mystery
Inflation probably is the most important, and puzzling, economic factor today. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining full employment while restraining inflation. With unemployment very low, the Fed’s primary focus is on inflation these days. The path of inflation, and the Fed’s expectations of that path, will determine how much the Fed […]
