Bob's Journal
Found 464 Articles.
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The Market Melt-Up
Stock indexes had an amazing start to 2018, so it shouldn’t be a surprise they closed January with consecutive down days. Before Jan. 30, the S&P 500 had 350 trading days without consecutive daily declines of 0.5% or more each. That’s a record by a wide margin. Fewer than a handful of such S&P 500 […]
Where the Real Action Is
Investors who are focused on U.S. stocks are missing a lot. It is true that U.S. stocks are off to one of the strongest starts ever to a calendar year. But savvy investors should be focusing elsewhere, specifically on the weakening U.S. dollar and the international stock markets. The dollar continues to be weak […]
Higher Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing Borrowing
Rising interest rates aren’t causing pain for the economy yet. Many people, including Federal Reserve officials, were worried when the Fed started raising interest rates. They weren’t sure growth would be sustained when the zero-interest-rate policy ended. But it’s so far, so good. In fact, one could argue that zero interest rates were holding back […]
The Yield Curve Warning Sign
There is a lot of misunderstanding about a key indicator of the economy and markets. The yield curve is attracting more and more attention. Most of the analysts drawing attention to the yield curve say it is giving or about to give a big warning to investors. I think they’re misreading the yield curve and […]
Evaluating the Aging Bull
After eight years of strong returns, is it time to consider selling U.S. stocks? Periods of strong returns make many investors nervous. Through 2017, we documented the extended periods of gains in the major market indexes without interruptions by significant declines. These periods without declines are at or near record lengths. The S&P 500, for […]
The 2017 Stock Market Review
Let’s review the highlights about why 2017 was an extraordinary year in the markets. Strength and consistency were the key qualities of U.S. stocks in 2017. There was very little volatility, especially downside volatility. There wasn’t a meaningful period of decline in 2017, and there really has not been one since early 2016. The price […]
Is Inflation about to Stir?
Inflation has been one of the major puzzles since the financial crisis. Many people expected that after the Fed began its zero-interest-rate and quantitative-easing policies in 2009, inflation would rise to troublesome levels. That didn’t happen, and inflation has been stubbornly below average for years. Inflation has increased the last few years, but it has […]
Deciphering the Latest Market Changes
Have you noticed the changes in the markets over the last few weeks? I don’t mean the sudden lack of new record highs in the major U.S. stock indexes. I’m asking about the changes in market leaders. All year, technology stocks have been leading the indexes higher, and the NASDAQ 100 has been the top […]
