Bob's Journal
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Stocks are Surging. What About the Economy?
The strongest responses to the election have been in U.S. stocks, the dollar and sentiment surveys. Each has had positive responses, with the consumer confidence and sentiment surveys soaring. The business sentiment surveys also have been strongly positive since the election. Historically, certain actions follow changes in sentiment. Rising retail sales follow surges in consumer […]
Seeing a Key Time for Balance
“Asymmetric” best describes our current economic and market environments. In the current economy, we have decent, sustainable economic growth and an incoming government that has plans to increase that growth. But we also continue to have the large debt overhang from the boom period. Plus, the incoming Donald Trump administration has some plans that are […]
The Post-Election Markets Change Course
The major market moves that occurred immediately after the election are either reversing or pausing. The moves right after the election looked a lot like panic buying and short-sale covering. Many investors were surprised by the election results, and unexpected news always accompanies these sharp changes in market trends. The moves also weren’t accompanied by […]
Sharing Tips on Forecasting
Earlier this week, we all engaged in our bad habits for the last time as our New Year’s resolutions went into effect. There will be no more smoking, drinking to excess, wasting time, being mean to children and animals, and so forth. We also established new habits of eating better, exercising more, being nicer to […]
Looking Forward to 2017
We could have a very interesting year in the markets in 2017. We are in one of those rare periods when investors, analysts and economists are in general agreement about the outlook. For the most part, they are optimistic about economic growth, and that in turn makes them optimistic about earnings and stock prices. They […]
The Year So Far
There are only a few trading days left in 2016, so it’s a good time to step back and look at the trends and returns for the year. Before we look at the numbers, consider the changes in fortune during the year. It started with a stock bear market and other problems in China. These […]
The Fed Finally Moves
The Fed finally pulled the trigger on another interest rate hike after a year of hand-wringing, fretting and promises. The Fed also promised three increases in 2017. Of course, a year ago, the Fed announced it expected to increase the interest rate another four times in 2016. The new policy and pronouncements are the result […]
Key Trends and Factors Entering 2017
As we head into the last few weeks of the year, here a few points to keep in mind about the economy and markets. Forecasts and predictions aren’t worth much. The Brexit vote, U.S. election, and Italian referendum were forecast to be major market-changers. The changes didn’t really happen, except in the U.S. the markets […]
