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One of the first places to spot changes in the global economy is in the economic surprises index. The best-known economic surprises index is prepared by Citigroup. The index doesn’t track whether economic data is positive or negative, improving or declining. Instead, it tracks whether the data is better or worse than the expectations of […]
President Trump directed a lot of his attention so far in 2018 at trade policies, and the markets noticed. Trade policies were always a key part of the president’s campaign talking points and agenda, but they were in the background through the first year of the administration. A few modest moves on trade were taken, […]
Jeremy Grantham, a founder of GMO, says that he’s so optimistic about the returns of emerging markets in coming years that he’s telling his kids to put more than half their retirement assets in emerging market stocks. Grantham’s made it clear over the last year or so that the best opportunities in global markets are […]
The head of investment firm GMO recently said U.S. stocks could continue to rise for a while, but he’s more interested in emerging market stocks because of their lower valuations. He elaborates on his emerging market views in a recent interview. Longer-term, Grantham is fairly pessimistic. He expects low returns from U.S. stocks over the […]
Jeremy Grantham of GMO isn’t optimistic about U.S. stocks and bonds for at least 10 years. He’s anticipating a 1% to 3% return from a traditional diversified portfolio. Here he makes the case for increasing your allocation to emerging market stocks. He also is recommending that his clients (institutional investors) make big bets in favor […]
U.S. stocks beat most international markets recently, but non-U.S. stocks are likely to resume the outperformance they delivered for most of the last 18 months. U.S. stock indexes have been setting record highs all year and are on pace to establish a record for most new highs recorded in a calendar year. The S&P 500 […]
The reversal in the U.S. dollar is the big news in the markets. The dollar soared after the election but began a steady decline in January that didn’t stop until recently. At one point, the dollar was down almost 10% for the year against a basket of major currencies. That was its longest and steepest […]
Do you remember the Taper Tantrum? Europe had its own version this week. Back in 2013, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke caused a panic when he casually stated in a congressional hearing that at some point the Fed would stop its quantitative easing and reduce the assets on its balance sheet. Many investors thought the change […]
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