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Inflation Policy: The Inflation Limit Isn’t 2%

February 27, 2018

Since the Fed announced some years ago that its goal was to raise inflation to 2%, many people have interpreted that to mean the Fed will tighten policy significantly once inflation reached 2%. As this article makes clear, that’s not the case. The Fed wants to see sustainable inflation of at least 2%. It’s going […]

Yellen Surprised by Inflation

October 16, 2017

Anyone who’s monitored Fed pronouncements the last few years knows that the central bank has significantly overestimated inflation. While others have said forces were in place to keep inflation below what it would be at this point in a traditional business cycle, the Fed disagreed. In this article, Chairman Janet Yellen acknowledges the Fed’s been […]

High Inflation and Interest Rates on the Way? The Impact of an Aging Population

September 25, 2017

This paper argues that the low global inflation since the early 1980s is partly due to demographic changes. In particular, a growing global labor market kept a ceiling on wages, which kept a ceiling on prices. It also increased productivity. Those trend of a growing global labor market is reversing. Therefore, over the next few […]

Social Security, Inflation, and Interest Rates

July 1, 2015

Many people benefit from delaying their Social Security retirement benefits until at least full retirement age. Delaying until age 70 can be an even better deal. For years I’ve shown people how to calculate the difference using what I call the quick-and-dirty method. The method involves calculating how many years you need to live after […]

Understanding Changes in Inflation Data

February 1, 2010

How inflation data are compiled usually interests only economists and statisticians, and only a few of them at that. Yet, retirees and those planning for retirement have more than a passing interest in the debate. The reported inflation rate determines increases in Social Security benefits and adjustments to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). It also determines […]


Which Way for Inflation

August 1, 2004

Is the inflation surge temporary, or is it a longer-term condition that needs strong Federal Reserve action to correct? That question will hover over the markets for at least a year. Until the answer is clear, it is best to invest with balance, diversification, and a solid margin of safety. The one-year inflation rates suddenly […]


How to Beat Inflation

September 1, 2003

A few economists continue to worry about deflation. Yet, the cost of the key goods and services most people buy keeps rising. Beating rising costs remains an important goal for those saving for retirement or striving to maintain their standard of living in retirement. Fortunately, you can reduce the cost of some important living expenses. […]

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