Stock Markets and the Economy
Found 231 Articles.
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Data Provide Mixed Bag of News
Economic growth decelerated in August, but the economy still grew at a healthy rate. No one should be surprised about slower growth in August, because July’s economic data were among the strongest of the last two years. The reports for August activity were released in September, so now we can take a comprehensive look and […]
Economy Perseveres against Tighter Monetary Policy
For several years now, the economy has been resisting the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy. In 2015, the Fed stopped its quantitative easing program, and it has been increasing interest rates at a very slow rate ever since. The Fed also is letting the bonds and mortgages it bought mature and roll off the balance […]
Why Not to Use a Single Piece of Data
Investors recently were given another good reason why not to rely on one piece of data to make decisions. For years, we’ve been told that Americans weren’t saving enough money and that the savings rate was declining, even after incomes and asset prices recovered from the financial crisis. As it turns out, that was all […]
Weighing Positives and Negatives in Today’s Markets
Headwinds and tailwinds continue to tussle against each other, confusing the outlook for investment markets and the economy. For several years, synchronized global monetary expansion provided floors under stocks and the economy. But the Federal Reserve is now tightening monetary policy, and other central banks, with the exception of Japan’s, are preparing to follow suit. […]
The Fed’s Tighter Policies Are Starting to Bite
As the economy continues to generate positive economic data, investors should ponder what will happen when the one-time factors supporting the markets and economy fade. The Federal Reserve started to tighten monetary policy in 2015, but the economy continues to grow. That’s partly because it usually takes two years or so for a change in […]
Inflation and Cost Pressures under Control
Many people are worried about a jump in inflation, but I expect the forces that are currently constraining price increases to continue to do so. Recently, pressures for higher inflation have been fairly strong. Most inflation measures finally reached or topped the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% over 12 months. Businesses are reporting cost pressures […]
Explaining Rising Stock Markets in the Midst of a Tariff War
In the last week, many market watchers probably saw an apparent contradiction: U.S. stocks were on the rise despite a global trade war and various geopolitical tensions. Why, and how, could this be the happening? Explaining short-term changes in the markets is always difficult and risky, but I’m going to try. Financial engineering by American companies […]
Don’t Discount the Power of the Fed
Trade conflicts and the dollar appear to be moving markets, but don’t discount the power of the Fed. As the first half of 2018 draws to a close, let’s see how various factors played out during that time, starting with the overall stock market. Here, the major indexes started the year by hitting a series […]
