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Will the Federal Reserve and most investors be very wrong two years in a row? Market prices, especially futures prices, indicate most investors join Fed officials in believing the Fed won’t have to do much to dampen inflation and return economic growth to pre-pandemic levels. They also expect high profit margins to continue. They were […]
Central banks are curtailing their pandemic stimulus measures, and investors need to assess how that will affect different investments. As expected, the Federal Reserve announced that in November it would begin reducing its monthly asset purchases of $120 billion with the goal of eliminating those extra asset purchases by June 2022. That doesn’t mean the […]
The tight relationship between the economy and markets might be ending. For some time, economic growth has been accompanied by higher stock prices, and stock indexes faltered when growth slowed or declined. Going forward, it is likely economic growth will continue while the stock indexes remain in a trading range or decline. Growth should continue […]
Investors seem to agree with the Federal Reserve that the surges in economic growth and inflation are temporary. I am skeptical. Market pricing indicates most investors expect the growth rate to decline, and that slower growth will reduce inflation. I believe the markets are underestimating the prospects for continued growth and inflation. Recent economic growth […]
China’s government has been busy over the last few months, and its actions have led to a steep sell-off in China’s stocks. The decline accelerated in August. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) declined 14.39% from its Feb. 17 peak through June 28. By Aug. 25, the fund was down 32.21% from its February high. […]
The strong economic growth and inflation experienced recently are sustainable, and they’re being underestimated by investors and the Federal Reserve. Market prices indicate investors expect a quick return to the pre-pandemic combination of modest growth and low inflation. Fed officials repeatedly say that’s what they believe will happen. Forces supporting growth and inflation are in […]
The stage is set for the second half of 2021 to deliver a strong, broad economic expansion, probably the best in a long time. There’s a strong foundation for sustained growth. Households improved their balance sheets during the pandemic, helped by stimulus payments and rising asset prices. Also, incomes are rising. Households, as a whole, […]
The markets are changing as investors anticipate and worry about the Federal Reserve’s plan to remove some of the liquidity it pumped into the economy since March 2020. Liquidity provided by the Fed has been the main influence on the economy and investment markets since 2009. The Fed’s motivation has been to avoid a depression […]
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