Stock Markets and the Economy
Found 231 Articles.
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The Fed’s New Paradigm and Your Retirement Finances: Investment and Economic Review December 2019
The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world recently made a dramatic change in their outlook and policies. Most investors still haven’t grasped the significance of the change and why it was made. In this edition of the Retirement Watch Spotlight Series, I explain in detail why central banks have sharply reversed their […]
Are We About to Repeat 2015-2016?
The big question for investors hasn’t changed. Will 2019-2020 be similar to 2015-2016, or will we slide into a recession? In 2015, the U.S. economy was so slow that several historically reliable indicators of an imminent recession were waiving red flags. The global economy was even weaker. By early 2016, global stock markets were falling […]
The Fed Recognizes the World Has Changed
Central banks in the developed world made a historic shift in their policies the last few months, and many people haven’t noticed or don’t realize the significance. The Federal Reserve and other central banks now are actively and preemptively fighting deflation. In the past, central banks were most concerned about containing inflation and they’d tighten […]
Will Businesses Tip Us Into a Recession?
Will consumer spending continue to support business growth, or will sagging business growth drag down consumer spending? There are two contradictory trends in the economy, and they aren’t likely to co-exist indefinitely. It is clear that business activity is slower than a year ago, and businesses are reducing their investments. Manufacturing is performing the worst. […]
Recession: Weighing the Pluses and Minuses in the Data
Will central banks save the economy and markets from the bankers’ mistakes, the global trade conflicts and political events? I’ve said for some time that the greatest risk to the economy and markets is that the Fed might tighten monetary policy too much, and I said in 2018 that the tightening the Fed initiated in […]
How to Navigate the Two Faces of the Economy
The outlook for the economy and markets depends on what data are assessed. The consumer and household side of the economy can’t get much better. Indeed, consumer confidence remains near all-time highs and the optimism contributes to rising retail sales growth. Retail sales are volatile from month to month, but the average over several months […]
Bob’s Journal for 6/27
It is a good idea for investors to keep an eye on the market performance of semiconductor companies. I don’t recommend using only one indicator to assess where the market is likely to head, but the semiconductors have a good history of tipping us off to market and economic downturns. This makes a lot of […]
How to Invest During the Fed’s Great Pause and With Fading Tailwinds: Investment and Economic Review
Much has happened since my last semiannual investment and economic review in December 2018. I plan to cover the changes that have happened since then in my latest Retirement Watch Spotlight Series online seminar. In the latest review, I set the stage by summarizing how the economy and markets have shifted over the last 18 […]
