Bob's Journal
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Key Trends and Factors Entering 2017
As we head into the last few weeks of the year, here a few points to keep in mind about the economy and markets. Forecasts and predictions aren’t worth much. The Brexit vote, U.S. election, and Italian referendum were forecast to be major market-changers. The changes didn’t really happen, except in the U.S. the markets […]
What Will Italy’s Referendum on Sunday Bring?
The attention of many investors and economists is shifting from the change of administrations in the United States to Sunday’s referendum in Italy. The result could have repercussions for the European Union exceeding those from last June’s Brexit vote, according to much of the pre-referendum hype. On Sunday, Italians will vote whether or not to […]
Happy Thanksgiving
We celebrated Thanksgiving early this year because most of the family is going to be out of town visiting other relatives. The early celebration seemed to enable more of the reflection and spirit intended for the holiday. In recognition of Thanksgiving, I modified the format of this week’s message. We had a volatile, unpredictable 2016. […]
Handling the Post-Election Realignment
The last few weeks are evidence that market forecasters don’t know much. They said before the election that a Clinton victory would be good for stocks and a Trump victory would be bad for stocks. Some observers were forecasting sharp drops of 10% to 15% if Trump were to win. Traders initially followed this view. […]
The Election and Your Portfolio
The election everyone said they hated is behind us. Now we plan for the results. Post-election forecasts are as precarious as pre-election forecasts. I remember after Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, the consensus was that stocks of “green companies” would do well and defense stocks would do poorly. There even were newsletters and mutual […]
Investments Tumble in October
I don’t know if the presidential election is affecting the stock market, but some analysts believe that’s the case. They also believe the stock market anticipates the election results. Their conclusion is that when the stock market rallies into election day, the incumbent party will win the election. When the market declines leading up to […]
Central Bankers Pushing on a String
October 27, 2016 Central Bankers Pushing on a String Investors are becoming complacent just at the time when they shouldn’t. As bankers ramped up quantitative easing (QE) after 2008, many investors remained cautious. Surveys showed investors holding large allocations to cash as QE pushed the prices of stocks, bonds, and other assets higher. Now, it […]
The Stealth Interest Rate Increase
I’m going to be busy at the MoneyShow Dallas this week, so I prepared this week’s update a day early, on Wednesday morning. Next week we’ll be on the regular schedule. People are focusing too much on the Federal Reserve and when it might raise interest rates. That’s caused them to miss the rate increases […]
