Bob's Journal
Found 464 Articles.
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It Is All about the Earnings
Rising earnings are boosting stock prices. Until recently, central banks (especially the Federal Reserve) were prime movers of the markets. Quantitative easing was designed largely to increase stock prices by pushing money into the markets, and it largely had that effect. But the Fed has been reducing its role since 2014. That pushes earnings and […]
The Fed Still Doesn’t Need to Worry About Inflation
Many analysts and investors misunderstand inflation, and that’s caused them to misjudge markets the last few years. Most people believe that a lot of money printing by the central bank always leads to a lot of inflation. I remember making an investment presentation to a local group a year or so after the financial crisis. […]
The Second Quarter and First Half in Perspective
Most investors and media focus on U.S. stocks but that is not where the important action has been this year. We wrapped up the second quarter of the year on June 30 and stocks did well across the board for the month, the second quarter and the first half of 2017. As seems to have […]
European Central Bankers Rattle the Markets
Do you remember the Taper Tantrum? Europe had its own version this week. Back in 2013, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke caused a panic when he casually stated in a congressional hearing that at some point the Fed would stop its quantitative easing and reduce the assets on its balance sheet. Many investors thought the change […]
The Next Bear Market
It is time to plan for the next bear market and recession. I’m not predicting that either is imminent. In fact, the reliable lead indicators of recessions aren’t issuing any warning signs yet. The best time to plan for bear markets and recessions is when they don’t seem to be on the horizon. Most people […]
The Outlook for Earnings
What’s the outlook for U.S. corporate earnings and what does it mean for stocks? Earnings were in a recession, even while the economy grew, from 2014-2016. Earnings for most companies declined year-over-year during that period. Late in 2016, we finally saw positive and even robust earnings growth. Analysts generally expect such strong earnings growth to […]
Understanding the Latest Employment Reports
Last week’s Employment Situation reports disappointed some investors and analysts. They’re misinterpreting the data. The government reported only 138,000 new jobs created. Also, last month’s reported 211,000 new jobs were revised down to 174,000, well below the numbers of the past year, thus raising concerns among some observers about reduced growth. In addition, average hourly earnings increased […]
Sell in May and Go Away?
Investors who followed the old adage to sell in May and buy again in November missed some nice gains in the last month. The S&P 500 rose 1.40% for the month of May and is up 8.62% for the year to date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 0.71% for the month and 7.41% so […]
