Bob's Journal
Found 464 Articles.
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The Post-Crisis Inflation Mystery
Inflation probably is the most important, and puzzling, economic factor today. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining full employment while restraining inflation. With unemployment very low, the Fed’s primary focus is on inflation these days. The path of inflation, and the Fed’s expectations of that path, will determine how much the Fed […]
Trade Talk, Actions Roil The Markets
President Trump directed a lot of his attention so far in 2018 at trade policies, and the markets noticed. Trade policies were always a key part of the president’s campaign talking points and agenda, but they were in the background through the first year of the administration. A few modest moves on trade were taken, […]
Listening To The Markets
The markets are sending us interesting messages. A lot has happened in the markets so far in 2018. U.S. stocks had strong returns and record highs throughout January. That was followed by a brief correction and a rebound. Global markets generally have been correlated with the U.S. indexes, but there has been a lot of […]
The Changing S&P 500
The market rally the last few years has been uneven, and that’s led to technology stocks dominating the S&P 500. S&P doesn’t rebalance the S&P 500 index on a regular basis. It generally lets the market do that, as the weight of different stocks and especially sectors changes over time. Sometimes the changes can be […]
Bob’s Journal
Highlighting a Spectacular Earnings Season Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2017 ended last week, and it was an outstanding season. A key point to keep in mind is that analysts increased their estimate forecasts through the quarter as the economic data became stronger. In fact, the rate of forecast increases was the most […]
The Dog That Didn’t Bark
What was a unique feature of the recent stock market sell- off? Give yourself a prize if you said the limited action in the bond market, especially high-yield and corporate bonds. High-yield bonds are correlated more with equities than with government bonds, so when stocks have a correction, there’s usually a jump in high-yield bond […]
It Looks Like a Typical Correction
The recent correction shook up investors, and that will be good for the markets in the coming months. Before the correction, stock indexes had been on an extended upward climb. The climb became very steep in January. Importantly, technical measures indicated stocks not only were overbought, but extremely overbought. That means the index was more […]
Finally, a Significant Market Decline
I didn’t mean to put a hex on the stock markets last week. In last Thursday’s Bob’s Journal, I wondered how investors would react to the next big decline in stocks. I pointed out that a decline of more than 500 points on the Dow would be only a 2% decline. However, such a decline […]
