Bob's Journal
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Investing and Political Uncertainty
How do you invest in a time of high political uncertainty and volatility? We had to deal with that issue several times in the recent past, and most investors handled it the wrong way. After months of very low volatility and what I’ve been calling complacency, investors had a wake-up call last week. A special […]
The Roots of Today’s Growth
Remember the global panic of early 2016? The recent economic growth and market strength had their roots there. You might remember that in late 2015, investors started to see warning signs in China. China’s stock markets had a very strong 2015, largely because regulators had changed the rules to allow more leveraged investing. As 2015 […]
Hard Data versus Anecdotes
There are significant inconsistencies between the major economic reports, and it’s important to resolve them. I’ve pointed to the inconsistencies several times in these weekly updates. Sentiment surveys and anecdotal reports have been extremely positive. The Small Business Optimism Index and consumer sentiment surveys surged to multi-year highs a few months ago. While they’re below […]
How Markets Fared in the First Third of 2017
We put the first third of 2017 behind us at the end of April and we now should take a look at how the different markets fared that month and so far this year. The big story was the U.S. dollar. You might remember that after the election in 2016, the dollar rose sharply. Investors […]
Politics Whipsaws the Markets
Interesting changes continue to occur in the markets, and they show the importance of balanced portfolios. Remember, after the election, the dollar and U.S. stocks rose. The rise in U.S. stocks was focused primarily in smaller, domestic-oriented companies. The larger U.S. companies with multinational activities suffered, while stocks of companies outside the United States also […]
The Next Financial Danger Point?
Are subprime auto loans the next shoe to drop in the economy? Auto loans have been getting a lot of attention. In a recent issue of Barron’s, two unrelated articles discussed auto loans as a potential source of worry for the economy and regulators. Since the financial crisis, auto loans have been one of the […]
Planning for Tomorrow’s Problems
How should portfolios be positioned for the long-term risks and worries in the economy? That’s the key question facing many investors today, and how you answer it matters a lot to your long-term financial independence. I don’t have to give you details about the risks and problems in the global economy. There are plenty of […]
The First Quarter Wrap
The first quarter closed last Friday but the markets were very different in March than earlier in the year. The change altered the overall performance of different assets for the quarter, since U.S. stocks didn’t do much in March. They took a break from the strong rally they had in January and February. But overseas […]
