Social Security
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What To Do About Social Security
Social Security will have enough money to pay only 70% to 80% of its promised benefits if changes aren’t made. The year when the program won’t be able to pay full benefits changes depending on forecasts for economic growth and inflation plus life expectancy, but it consistently has been between 2030 and 2040. Donald Trump […]
Social Security to Mail Fewer Benefits Estimates
The stop-start nature of benefits estimates from Social Security continues. For a brief period, Social Security mailed paper statements of estimated benefits to every U.S. workers who had enough earnings to qualify for retirement benefits. Since then, Social Security’s periodically saved money by limiting the number of statements it mailed. Recently, Social Security posted a […]
Offering Social Security Strategies for Widows and Widowers
Social Security survivor’s benefits are one of the most important parts of retirement planning. Often, a married couple is living comfortably when both are alive and receiving Social Security retirement benefits. When one spouse passes away, however, one of the retirement benefit checks stops. Social Security pays survivor’s benefits. But the surviving spouse can receive […]
Those Year-End Stock Market Forecasts
The big investment firms almost always have their economists or strategists issue forecasts of how much the market indexes will rise or fall the following year. In the past, I’ve urged readers to view these forecasts as entertainment. Don’t use them to manage portfolios. Here’s a good post from a statistician who took forecasts from […]
Anticipating Future Stock Market Returns
Meb Faber summarizes a talk he recently gave about valuations and what they say about likely future returns. He doesn’t make forecasts. He looks at the probabilities of different scenarios and what the returns are likely to be in each of those scenarios. The outcomes aren’t very positive for investment positions taken today. Historical returns […]
Steve Eisman, A Big Short, Gives His Current Views on the Economy and the Stock Market
Steve Eisman is one of the people given credit for seeing the mortgage/housing crisis coming and benefiting from the collapse. He’s been quiet the last few years. But this post describes his latest speech, in which he describes what he thinks is likely to be a good short position and a possible source of a […]
Don’t Rely on the Social Security Administration to give you good Information
The Social Security Administration isn’t doing a good job of advising Americans on their options and how to make the best choices. That shouldn’t surprise any Retirement Watch readers, but it recently was confirmed in a study by the GAO. The government agency studied the information SSA gives to beneficiaries and potential beneficiaries and found […]
The Current State of Stock Rotation: Which Sectors are Hot?
Here’s another sign that the U.S. stock is resuming some normal historic patterns. In normal times, there are rolling bear markets and bull markets within the sectors of the indexes. Some sectors are doing well while others are doing poorly, regardless of what the market indexes are doing. That’s happened since 2014, when the Fed […]
