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Shiller on Stocks

June 2, 2015

Professor Robert Shiller CAPE ratio has marked U.S. stocks are overvalued for some time. Shiller’s also been saying that they haven’t been this overvalued except for the two great market peaks of 1929 and 2000. Still, he’s probably not someone you want to take investment advice from. In this interview, he seems to take all […]

Dissecting The Shiller P-E Conundrum

December 8, 2014

Longtime readers of Retirement Watch are familiar with Hussman Strategic Growth and its fall from grace. The fund had a great record prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Since the recovery began in 2009, the fund’s continued to hedge its portfolio, selling short stock index futures as stock indexes rose to record levels. The fund’s […]

The Shiller P/E Ratio Deconstructed

September 3, 2014

Philosophical Economics blog goes into detail to explain why the Shiller P/E ratio (a.k.a. the CAPE ratio) has been historically high for a long time. He also points out that more traditional P/E ratios also have been historically high. After explaining why several factors cause the rise in the CAPE, the blog lists several possible […]

More Criticism About the Shiller P-E Ratio

December 11, 2013

About the only stock valuation measure that now indicates stocks are well above historic average values is the Shiller Price-Earnings ratio, known formally as the CAPE for Cyclically-Adjusted P-E ratio. It takes a 10-year inflation-adjusted average earnings to compute the P-E ratio instead of the last 12-months’ earnings or projected 12-months’ earnings. I’ve linked to […]

The Latest from Bob Shiller

December 4, 2013

The co-winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Economic Science is generating a lot of media these days, largely in support of various business projects such as his role with a new mutual fund with DoubleLine Funds. When you see an interview with him, be sure to read his words carefully. Don’t rely on the […]

More on Fama and Shiller – Efficient versus Inefficient Markets

October 28, 2013

Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller were two of the three recipients of the 2013 Nobel for Economic Science. That prompted a lot of people to say that the prize committee was having some fun by naming two people with opposing theories. Fama was an early champion of efficient markets, while Shiller contends markets can be […]

Should You Use 10-Year Average Earnings?

October 17, 2012

When people evaluate the stock market, they usually focus on whether the market is cheap or rich, and that usually focuses on earnings. But which earnings should you use? Conventional analysts tend to use projections for earnings over the next year. But some other analysts believe that’s a bad move. Forecasts of the next year’s […]


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