Stock Valuations
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How Big Is The Technology Stock Market Bubble?
Large technology company stocks have been leading the markets higher, and that’s creating some imbalances. In this article, an accounting professor argues that by key measures of valuation technology stocks currently are more highly valued than during the tech stock bubble of the late 1990s. He’s mostly concerned about the unicorns, the relatively new tech […]
Higher Earnings Mean Lower Stock Market Returns
I’ve discussed the topic in this article in recent editions of Bob’s Journal, available to Retirement Watch subscribers. While many investors think that intuitively higher earnings growth should lead to higher stock prices, the opposite usually is true. High earnings growth usually isn’t sustainable; some call is peak earnings. Also, the markets usually anticipate the […]
How to Know if Stocks are Too Expensive?
Dr. Ed Yardeni says they aren’t, using the real earnings yield as a measure. He also explains why he likes this measure of value over others and what it’s saying today. As I observe in my book, there are lots of valuation models. None are infallible. None are right all the time. I like the […]
Those Stock Valuation Models – The Fed Model and the Shiller CAPE Model
I’ve long argued that stock valuations can be good long-term predictors of returns, but they don’t do much good in the short term. A stock, or an index of stocks, can be extremely undervalued or overvalued for an extended period. This article dives into the details of two models, the Fed Model and the Shiller […]
Reviewing Stock Market Valuation Measures
For a long time I’ve said that valuation measures are good only for indicating stock market returns over the next 10 years or so. By themselves they aren’t good for tactical portfolio changes. In this article, economic Ed Yardeni reviews the history of a range of stock market valuation measures. He also adjusts them for […]
Stock Market Valuations at 1997 Levels?
You’ve probably seen a number of reports indicating that U.S. stock indexes have valuations above or near historic highs. Here’s an alternate view. The Leuthold Group uses six measures to value U.S. stocks. In aggregate these measures show that stock valuations are around the levels of 1997. That could mean the current rally has about […]
Some Stock Market Valuation History
This post goes into some detail comparing current stock trends and valuations to those of the 2000 bubble era. Its bottom line is that the situation today isn’t anything like 2000. It doesn’t mean stocks have to rise from here, but the point is that despite today’s high valuations we don’t have a bubble situation. […]
Analyzing the TED Spread
The TED Spread is a simple quantitative tool that some analysts use to gauge the level of risk in the markets. When the spread gets too wide, they say, it’s time to sell some assets. I bring this up because the TED Spread’s been rising lately. Here’s a good analysis of the TED Spread. Like […]