Found 9 Articles.
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Large technology company stocks have been leading the markets higher, and that’s creating some imbalances. In this article, an accounting professor argues that by key measures of valuation technology stocks currently are more highly valued than during the tech stock bubble of the late 1990s. He’s mostly concerned about the unicorns, the relatively new tech […]
Dr. Ed Yardeni says they aren’t, using the real earnings yield as a measure. He also explains why he likes this measure of value over others and what it’s saying today. As I observe in my book, there are lots of valuation models. None are infallible. None are right all the time. I like the […]
I’ve long argued that stock valuations can be good long-term predictors of returns, but they don’t do much good in the short term. A stock, or an index of stocks, can be extremely undervalued or overvalued for an extended period. This article dives into the details of two models, the Fed Model and the Shiller […]
For a long time I’ve said that valuation measures are good only for indicating stock market returns over the next 10 years or so. By themselves they aren’t good for tactical portfolio changes. In this article, economic Ed Yardeni reviews the history of a range of stock market valuation measures. He also adjusts them for […]
You’ve probably seen a number of reports indicating that U.S. stock indexes have valuations above or near historic highs. Here’s an alternate view. The Leuthold Group uses six measures to value U.S. stocks. In aggregate these measures show that stock valuations are around the levels of 1997. That could mean the current rally has about […]
This post goes into some detail comparing current stock trends and valuations to those of the 2000 bubble era. Its bottom line is that the situation today isn’t anything like 2000. It doesn’t mean stocks have to rise from here, but the point is that despite today’s high valuations we don’t have a bubble situation. […]
Most of you probably haven’t heard of James Montier. He’s with the investment firm GMO and before that was with a prominent international financial services firm. He’s fairly well known among institutional investors because of some novel investment insights he’s had, always backed by research. His research product always is provocative and fun to read. […]
Investors continue to seek the economic or market indicator that tells them when to buy and sell stocks. I spend some time in my book Invest Like a Fox…Not Like a Hedgehog discussing this phenomenon and why it doesn’t work. At a minimum, you need to look at multiple indicators, not only one data point. […]
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