Stock Markets and the Economy
Found 187 Articles.
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Recession: Weighing the Pluses and Minuses in the Data
Will central banks save the economy and markets from the bankers’ mistakes, the global trade conflicts and political events? I’ve said for some time that the greatest risk to the economy and markets is that the Fed might tighten monetary policy too much, and I said in 2018 that the tightening the Fed initiated in […]
How to Navigate the Two Faces of the Economy
The outlook for the economy and markets depends on what data are assessed. The consumer and household side of the economy can’t get much better. Indeed, consumer confidence remains near all-time highs and the optimism contributes to rising retail sales growth. Retail sales are volatile from month to month, but the average over several months […]
Bob’s Journal for 6/27
It is a good idea for investors to keep an eye on the market performance of semiconductor companies. I don’t recommend using only one indicator to assess where the market is likely to head, but the semiconductors have a good history of tipping us off to market and economic downturns. This makes a lot of […]
How to Invest During the Fed’s Great Pause and With Fading Tailwinds: Investment and Economic Review
Much has happened since my last semiannual investment and economic review in December 2018. I plan to cover the changes that have happened since then in my latest Retirement Watch Spotlight Series online seminar. In the latest review, I set the stage by summarizing how the economy and markets have shifted over the last 18 […]
Bob’s Journal for 6/6/2019
Federal Reserve officials must be dizzy from the numerous policy changes that they’ve made the last few years. Investors and markets are being taken along on the ride. Only last September, Fed officials were making it clear that they wanted to raise interest rates to near historic averages within the next few years. They believed […]
Bob’s Journal for 5/30/19
The conflicts between the United States and China are escalating and having stronger effects on markets. When the conflicts began less than two years ago, markets would react. The reactions often were to presidential tweets but the effects on the markets weren’t lasting. Subsequent news reports, interviews or other tweets convinced investors that the two […]
Bob’s Journal for 5/23
The first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate led many investors to believe that the economy is stronger than it really is. The estimate indicated that GDP grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in the first quarter. That’s a big jump from the 2.2% rate of the fourth quarter of 2018. A major reason for the […]
Why the Fed and the Markets Are in Conflict
The Federal Reserve successfully used its messaging ability to stem the economy’s decline and help investment markets. But what comes next? The Fed tightened policy too much in 2018. The effects were felt globally. Economic growth slowed and most asset markets declined. Market interest rates rose higher than the interest rates the Fed controls. The […]
