Stock Markets and the Economy

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Byron Wein’s 10 Stock Market Investment Surprises

January 4, 2018

The BlackStone strategist published his annual list of 10 potential surprises for the coming year, plus five runners up. Byron Wein emphasizes that these aren’t predictions of what will happen. These are events most people discount but that he thinks have at least a 50% probability of occurring. It’s interesting reading every year. He reviews […]

Avoid U.S. Investments? The 4 Drivers of Stock Market Returns and their Current Viability

December 11, 2017

Two prominent investment firms are arguing that this good be a good time for U.S. investors to sharply curtail or eliminate U.S. stocks and bonds from their portfolios. They see a lot of risk from U.S. investments. They also see better value and higher growth prospects in many overseas assets. Read Research Affiliates thoughts here […]

An Important Stock Market Crash Anniversary

October 19, 2017

It was 30 years ago today that the U.S. stock markets experienced Black Monday, still the largest single-day decline in the stock indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 22.6% in one trading session. That was 508 points at the time and about 5,775 points at today’s level. But that was only part of the […]

Dodge & Cox Profile

October 16, 2017

One of my favorite mutual fund firms is Dodge & Cox. Their stock fund consistently has beaten the S&P 500 over an extended period. The firm charges low fees, and its winning investment style has continued to excel through several generations of management. Read the profile. The old-school investment firm does virtually nothing to promote […]

Navigating an Improbable Year and Preparing for More Surprises to Come

November 10, 2016

Don’t fall into the extrapolation trap that snares most investors. Too many investors extrapo- late the recent past into the indefinite future. They believe whatever has happened in the economy and markets recently will continue to happen. Behavioral finance economists and psychologists call this “recency” bias. (I know most dictionaries don’t accept “recency” as a […]

5 Issues Investors are Worrying About

July 12, 2016

There’s a lot for investors to worry about. There’s almost always is, of course. This article does a good job of identifying five things investors should be worrying about now. But the real question investors need to ask isn’t what could go wrong. The important question is: What already is priced into the markets? If […]

Your Portfolio And The Economy

July 1, 2003

Most investors try to forecast the economy and use that forecast to manage their investments. Don’t take that route. There is a long-term relationship between stocks and the economy. Over short and even intermediate-term periods, there is not a strong tie between stock returns and the economy. We don’t have to look back too far […]

Stock Markets and the Economy

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