Stock Markets and the Economy
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Hurricane Harvey and the Economy
First, I’d like you to know there’s a little time left to make my book an award winner. The revised edition of “The New Rules of Retirement” is nominated for Best Retirement Book by Senior Homes. The highest online vote-getter will be the winner, and right now I’m in third place and need additional votes. […]
Talking About Market Bubbles
When will this market bubble finally burst? The question is asked a lot lately. Market indexes set a lot of records during the last couple of years, with the latest being the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 22,000. Some analysts believe the entire market is in a bubble, while others say that only stocks, […]
Second-Half of 2017 Starts with a Rally
Monday’s market close marked the end of the first seven months of the year, and it’s interesting to compare the results so far with what people expected at the start of the year. At the start of the year, many investors and analysts were sold on the notion of the so-called “Trump Trade.” Deregulation and […]
It Is All about the Earnings
Rising earnings are boosting stock prices. Until recently, central banks (especially the Federal Reserve) were prime movers of the markets. Quantitative easing was designed largely to increase stock prices by pushing money into the markets, and it largely had that effect. But the Fed has been reducing its role since 2014. That pushes earnings and […]
The Fed’s Balancing Act, the Markets and Your Portfolio
Central bankers are dancing on a tightrope as they try to steer us toward higher interest rates and less monetary stimulus without triggering a downturn. Beginning in 2009, central banks made the markets safe for risk-takers by flooding the globe with money. The results were a very long period of modest economic growth and one of […]
The Second Quarter and First Half in Perspective
Most investors and media focus on U.S. stocks but that is not where the important action has been this year. We wrapped up the second quarter of the year on June 30 and stocks did well across the board for the month, the second quarter and the first half of 2017. As seems to have […]
The Next Bear Market
It is time to plan for the next bear market and recession. I’m not predicting that either is imminent. In fact, the reliable lead indicators of recessions aren’t issuing any warning signs yet. The best time to plan for bear markets and recessions is when they don’t seem to be on the horizon. Most people […]
Be on the Lookout For the Next Change in Trends
Investors need to be wary of the “recency effect,” which regularly costs people a lot of money. Under the recency effect, people tend to remember best the facts and ideas to which they’ve most recently been exposed. In investing and economics, people believe the future will be very similar to the recent past. It’s a […]
