Stock Markets and the Economy
Found 234 Articles.
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Evaluating the Aging Bull
After eight years of strong returns, is it time to consider selling U.S. stocks? Periods of strong returns make many investors nervous. Through 2017, we documented the extended periods of gains in the major market indexes without interruptions by significant declines. These periods without declines are at or near record lengths. The S&P 500, for […]
The 2017 Stock Market Review
Let’s review the highlights about why 2017 was an extraordinary year in the markets. Strength and consistency were the key qualities of U.S. stocks in 2017. There was very little volatility, especially downside volatility. There wasn’t a meaningful period of decline in 2017, and there really has not been one since early 2016. The price […]
Avoid U.S. Investments? The 4 Drivers of Stock Market Returns and their Current Viability
Two prominent investment firms are arguing that this good be a good time for U.S. investors to sharply curtail or eliminate U.S. stocks and bonds from their portfolios. They see a lot of risk from U.S. investments. They also see better value and higher growth prospects in many overseas assets. Read Research Affiliates thoughts here […]
Deciphering the Latest Market Changes
Have you noticed the changes in the markets over the last few weeks? I don’t mean the sudden lack of new record highs in the major U.S. stock indexes. I’m asking about the changes in market leaders. All year, technology stocks have been leading the indexes higher, and the NASDAQ 100 has been the top […]
The Year of Positive Economic Surprises
We’re about to be inundated with economic and market forecasts for 2018. Before you spend much time with those forecasts, consider how accurately the forecasts for 2017 were. Market forecasts are notoriously inaccurate, but most of the forecasts for 2017 were farther off the mark than usual. I like to follow the Citi Economic Surprise […]
The Markets Since the Election
Last week marked the first year since the presidential election, so let’s look at what markets have done since Election Day. Of course, you know that U.S. stock indexes are sharply higher than a year ago. The major indexes each returned more than 20%, but the increase isn’t across the board for all indices. The […]
Inside the Confidence Numbers
Consumer confidence and sentiment are extremely positive. Let’s take a look behind the headline numbers. If you’ve been following these reports regularly, you’ve seen the steady increases in Consumer Sentiment, as reported by the University of Michigan and Consumer Confidence as reported by The Conference Board. While both numbers have increased, the Consumer Confidence numbers […]
The Dow vs. the Rest of the Market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) quietly shot past all the other benchmarks in October, and no one expected that. The DJIA is the benchmark most quoted by the media, but it takes a lot of abuse from academics and financial professionals. The DJIA reflects the limits of technology at the time it was created […]
